Financial Planners Fort Myers— Federal Reserve Day

About eight times a year the Federal Reserve gets together and discusses the economy, inflation, interest rates, and everything else that may cause financial markets around the world to react.  Today, they basically repeated their view from the last meeting that the economy faces significant downside risks.  However, they failed to give investors any indication of whether or not it was close to unveiling another round of bond buying to stimulate the economy even further.  One piece of news that was different from last time was the fact that they mentioned late 2014 as a potential time that they may hike interest rates.  This was pushed back from the middle of 2013 that they previously had told us.  Also, the Federal Reserve gave us an official inflation target of 2% for the first time ever in a move to move towards greater transparency.

The markets appear to like the announcement as they have moved higher on the session coming well off the lows of the morning.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— Potential Pullback?

With the S&P 500 closing higher for five straight days in a row markets may look to take a short-term breather as we continue to delve into earnings season.  Yesterday was a fairly non- eventful day in terms of price action as the market waited for further developments out of Europe to take shape.  As we have seen in the past, when we are waiting for something it generally doesn’t happen.  Investors should take solace in the fact that tomorrow is a Federal Reserve announcement day and history has shown us that they tend to be more bullish than bearish.

As a reminder the S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.  Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— What a start to the Year!

January has been very kind to some investors so far this year as the S&P 500 is up over 4.5% just this month.  As I mentioned last week, when the first five days in January are positive the chances for a profitable year have historically been around 75%.  (Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results.)  In addition, the average gains have tended to be quite impressive as well.  It is amazing to me how quickly the global markets can change from trading on macro headlines to going straight back to reacting to fundamentals.  Last month, we would have all been on pins and needles waiting for a resolution to the Greek debt debacle.  Now, it barely gets five minutes of air time on television!

In my opinion the market is changing from a mean reversion market to a trending market.  The recent news out of Greece and the lack of panic out of Europe have caused some investors to focus on fundamentals again, thus going back to individual stock analysis and leading to lower overall correlations.

Stay safe out there and remember to consult with a financial professional should you have questions or need help.

As a reminder the S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.  Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— Another Solid European Debt Auction

Eric Marvin, CFP®

As investors awoke this morning they were greeted by another solid debt auction in Europe.  This time it was Spain auctioning off $4.88 billion euros of 12 and 18 month treasury bills.  However, Thursday will prove to be an even bigger test as maturities of up to 10 years will be auctioned off. 

As things stand right now the S&P 500 is approaching the 1300 mark for the first time since last year.  It will be important for investors to keep an eye on this level as it is a key psychological milestone in this continued uptrend.

As a reminder the S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.  Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— Bulk Foreclosures for the Banks

A pilot program to sell government owned foreclosures in mass quantities could be in the works from the Obama administration.  With more than 250,000 properties on the books of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Housing Administration the federal government is getting anxious about what to do with all of the homes.  One idea could be to sell off blocks of properties to private investors who would in turn rent them out to those in need of housing. 

This drastic action could cause the major banks in the United States to write off up to 50% more properties than they already have put into foreclosure.  While the banks may take a hit upfront, this kind of program would have the potential to help start a recovery in the housing sector, which would in turn have benefits for the economy as a whole.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— New 50 Day High for the S&P 500

Eric Marvin, CFP®

The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 1292.08, which was significant because we established a new 50-day high water mark and also took out the highs from last October.  With this in mind, keep an eye on the markets today as we will have the Federal Reserve Beige Book out this afternoon, which could give us an indication of their thought process on the economy.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.  Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— The First Five Trading Days of January

Many investors may be familiar with the Stock Trader’s Almanac published by Jeffrey and Yale Hirsch.  This is a great book put out every year to give investors and traders all sorts of comprehensive data to evaluate on an ongoing basis.  One of the studies that this father and son duo puts out tends to get a lot of attention in January because it focuses on the first five trading days of the year.  The concept is very simple in that the performance of the S&P 500 during the first five trading days can be a leading indicator for the rest of the year.  The data goes back to 1950 all the way through the end of 2011 and the results speak for themselves.  Amazingly, the last 38 up first five days of the year for the S&P 500 have resulted in gains 33 times for the remainder of the year. 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.  Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

Financial Planners Fort Myers— Jobs Friday

Well, the most anticipated trading day of the week is finally here.  The global financial system was waiting on pins and needles for the release of the first jobs report of the year.  Expectations were positive after yesterday’s solid ADP report.  The unemployment rate fell to 8.5% from a previous 8.6% in December while 200,000 jobs were also added during the month.  All in all, these are strong numbers, but remember we still have a long way to go to get our workforce back to full capacity. 

Keep an eye on the market reaction today.  A lot of the jubilation from yesterday seems to be wearing off as traders begin to react to news out of Europe again.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— ADP Job Report

239-288-6542

The ADP Job Report for December was released this morning with some pretty good upbeat news.  The private-sector created 325,000 jobs for the month with jobless claims falling 15,000 to 372,000 for the latest week.  Economists had anticipated the ADP to report a number closer to 178,000 in terms of private job creation.  Initially, the markets responded very well to the news, but as I write this now they have since subsided. 

As I mentioned yesterday, this little consolidation move from the large gap up on Tuesday to start the year is very healthy for a continued uptrend.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— Gap Up to start the Year

Press Release..

Yesterday, the S&P 500 gapped up over 20 points on the open and eventually closed back above its 200 day moving average, which was around 1258.  Whether it was the first trading day of the month or optimism about starting a fresh year investors will take it.  Generally speaking, moves of this magnitude higher on the first day of the year have lead to short term pullbacks before moving higher. 

Keep an eye on the market today as we may be in the process of testing lower levels.  As a reminder, the S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.  Investors cannot invest directly in an index.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Now is a great time to take a fresh look at your portfolio.  Please feel free to contact me if you feel I may be able to help.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— The First Trading Day of the Month

First Day of Trading for January

Today marks the first trading day of January.  Traditionally, the market has reacted very positively to the first day of the month over the course of the last 25 years.  There is generally one good reason for this in that 25 years ago defined contribution plans were started and many fund managers and individuals put money to work on this day.  This theory has mainly played itself out during periods of uptrends in the market rather than in downtrends.  Quite simply, an uptrend is defined as a close above the 200 Day Moving Average for the S&P 500 while a downtrend is a close below. 

As things stand right now, the markets are up quite nicely.  Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.  Investors cannot directly invest in an index.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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