Financial Planners Fort Myers— Happy New Year!

Eric Marvin, CFP®

Financial Planners Ft Myers
239-288-6542

Well it is almost time to declare the end of 2011.  I know for many investors this has been a frustrating environment to live through with headlines dominating the trading landscape all year long.  The big question on everyone’s mind is if 2012 will be similar or be entirely different?  Only time will tell on 2012, but the one thing that should remain present is the presence of volatility in the global financial system.

One fun fact being that today is the last trading day of the year.  Did you know the NASDAQ has closed down 10 of the last 11 years on the last trading day of the year?  We will see if this holds up today, but as we have come to expect things can change at any given point.

As a reminder the NASDAQ is an unmanaged index.  Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— Nice Reversal

Eric Marvin

In yesterday’s blog post I mentioned the market’s tendency to slowly grind higher heading into the New Year.  Well, I posted that information in the morning and sure enough the S&P 500 had a reversal down of over one percent.  In doing some research, I found that the trading days of the last week between Christmas and the New Year tend to experience very little volatility over time.  This makes sense given that we are in the month of December with fewer days to trade and more holidays.  Taking this all into account you can see that yesterday’s move was very unusual.  So far today, the S&P 500 is up, but as everyone knows this can change quickly.  Remember, tomorrow is the last trading day of the year and to get in any tax loss selling that you may need to do. 

As a reminder the S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.  Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Fort Myers— Slow Grind Higher

Eric Marvin, CFP®

Well, as I woke up this morning I was pleasantly surprised to see the Italian six-month debt auction go off without a hitch.  In fact, Italy had their lowest six-month auction yield since September auctioning off $9 Billion euros for 3.25%.  This of course compares to a lifetime record high of 6.50% just last month.

With this good news the markets are still not out of the water yet for the end of the year, but they certainly dodged a bullet.  Tomorrow Italy will auction off longer-term debt, including three and ten year bonds.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®
Financial Advisor Ft Myers

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Financial Planners Ft Myers— 200 Day Moving Average on the S&P 500

Eric Marvin, CFP®

When most traders and retail investors took off early on Friday to start their Christmas holiday the S&P 500 was busy moving above its 200 Day Moving average.  The number to beat was approximately 1259 and the index had no problem doing that closing a little above 1265.  At these levels the market will be fighting resistance to try and stay above the moving average.  I personally would like to see a close above the 200 Day two or three days in a row before I start to prepare for more positive strength.  With volume being extremely light because of the holiday season you could see a slow continued grind higher in the index, or a reversal down from the current resistance levels.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index.  Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric M. Marvin

CFP® in Fort Myers, FL

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Financial Planners Ft Myers— Giving Thanks

Eric Marvin, CFP®, Financial Advisor

Today I am not going to talk about the markets, but rather take a minute and give thanks and reflect upon a great year.  This year has marked the beginning of a new chapter in my career upon beginning with J.P. Turner.  The transition was a little difficult at first, but looking back I wouldn’t have changed a thing.  Also, I recently got married in May and now my wife and I are expecting our first child next July. As we approach the end of the year and start a new one it is important to spend time with family, friends, and loved ones and cherish the moments that you have with each other.  I am extremely grateful for all of the support over the last several months and I look forward to making 2012 the best year yet! 

Eric M. Marvin

CFP® in Fort Myers, FL

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Financial Planners Ft Myers— Jobless Claims and GDP

Eric Marvin, CFP®

Just out at 8: 30 A.M. was the weekly jobless claims data.  The number came in at 364,000, which is the lowest level in over three years.  This is starting to give the impression that the labor market is slowly, but surely showing signs of life.  Also released this morning was the latest and greatest GDP numbers.  These came in at a revised 1.8 percent for the third quarter compared to the previously estimated 2 percent.

One of the reasons for the revision lower came in the form of healthcare spending.  In the first estimate, healthcare was reported to contribute a 0.61 percent growth rate versus the final number of minus 0.1 percent.

The markets will look to continue the strong seasonality trend into the New Year, but be sure to keep an eye out for bumps in the road along the way.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric M. Marvin

CFP® in Fort Myers, FL

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Financial Planners Ft Myers—Strong Seasonality May Continue

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®, Financial Advisor

As we approach the end of the year the market has traditionally shown a bias to the upside.  This trend goes back several years and is often referred to as the “Seasonality Effect.”  There is no one real answer as to why this tends to happen, but many people have developed theories.  First, December has less trading days than a normal month.  Second, the volatility index often bottoms during the middle of the month before it tends to reverse.  Third, traders tend to take vacation around the holidays, thus there is less volume on the exchanges.

Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results and these trends can reverse at any point in time.  This is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.

Eric M. Marvin

CFP® in Fort Myers, FL

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Let’s Rally



Eric Marvin CFP®
13410 Parker Commons Blvd. Suite 101



I must say it is very nice to wake up and have several pieces of potential good news for the trading day. Housing starts and building permits rose higher than expected in November, which is on the backside of gains in builder sentiment.  In addition to the U.S. housing news, German business optimism rose unexpectedly while Spanish short-term debt costs fell rather dramatically.

Also today, United States Republicans and Democrats will attempt to come to grips with a potential extension of the payroll tax.

So far, global markets are taking all of these developments in stride, but as as we know they can turn on the slightest piece of headline news.  Stay informed out there and don’t be afraid to contact a financial professional for help.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Financial Planners, Ft Myers, Florida
(239) 288-6542

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Gold appears to be taking a Breather

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®, Financial Planner

Since August the price of gold has come down from $1,900 dollars an ounce to around $1,600 dollars an ounce.  From the reaction of the media you would think this sell off of only $300 dollars or roughly 15% was monumental. 

To get a better idea of why we have seen the recent correction in prices it may help to look at several factors.  First, gold started the year at around $1,350 an ounce, so even at today’s prices it is still up over 18.5% for the year.  Second, metals prices including gold usually experience seasonality selling going into the end of the year.  In fact, we saw this same thing happen last year when gold lost about $100 dollars an ounce worth of value in December alone. 
Third, global markets around the world have been trying to figure out whether or not we are about to experience inflation or deflation.  The price action so far, appears to be leaning towards a deflationary environment versus an inflationary one.

Please remember past performance is no guarantee of future results and to always consult with your financial professional for more help.

Eric M. Marvin

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Lower Volatility in December?

Eric Marvin, Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor℠

Over the last several years overall volatility has seemed to bottom out in December more than in any other month.  Many people have suggested that this is due to the fact that December does have a tendency to be a bullish month for stocks and that there are fewer trading days overall in the month.  This seasonality effect is just another tool in the long-term investor’s toolbox that can possibly lead to one making more informed decisions.

In addition to volatility potentially falling to year lows in December there are several other seasonality trends to pay attention too.  Please consult with your financial professional for other ideas going forward in this difficult environment.  Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric M. Marvin

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I A new wave of Foreclosures

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®, J.P. Turner & Company, LLC

Starting in January a new wave of foreclosures may be about to hit the United States real estate market.  At the moment there are approximately 4 million past due loans that are stuck in the pipeline due to the holidays and other various reasons.  However, recent data in November from RealtyTrac suggests that the number of homes foreclosed on and sold via short sale were miscounted and would be revised upward in the coming months.

With many real estate markets across the country still reeling from the height of the market bubble several years ago it may take a little bit longer for some areas to finally reach a bottom.  Let’s hope these foreclosures are not enough to delay any potential recovery for the United States economy.

Eric M. Marvin

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Finishing the Year Strong

Link to the Eric M Marvin, CFP®, CRPC® Website:

Historically speaking, the third week in December has proven to be quite bullish over the years.  Accordingly so, this has led many to believe in the so called “Santa Clause” rally as we finish the year and head into January.  Time will tell whether or not history will repeat itself.  Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This year taught us the all-important lesson that perception is reality.  When enough people believe in something it doesn’t matter where the source of the news came from.

Eric Marvin

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Fed Meeting Day

The Federal Reserve has decided to once again place monetary policy on hold, but they did leave the door open to further quantitative easing as market turbulence posed threats to economic growth.  The economy expanded moderately even though it was apparent that global growth was slowing and the unemployment rate remained stubbornly high. 

For the second straight month, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans was the lone dissenter amongst the board suggesting that he was in favor of additional easing at the moment to stimulate a continued recovery.

The markets appear to be selling off upon receiving the Fed news, but we will have to wait and see how they may digest the news overnight.  Also, it appears we will have to wait for another meeting to get any indication that QE3 might be around the corner.  Those bullish on commodities are once again feeling some short-term pain.  Please remember past performance is no guarantee of future results.

                                                                                                                                        

Eric Marvin

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
Ft Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Italian Bond Yields Ease

For the first time in quite a while the one-year yield on Italian Bonds fell below the psychological level of 6%.  The demand was a bit more than normal as banks all got together to waive fees for investors who purchased the bills at auction.  The focus of this week now turns its attention on digesting the unified treaty proposed last week at the European Summit meeting.  Many analysts and economists have already come out and said the new plan is just another way to kick the can down the road until they meet again.  Adding to the fire, the ratings agencies have warned that they are very close to downgrading several European countries without warning.  Personally, I think they will do this at some point during the week to prove a point. 

At this point, the markets appear to be heading lower today, but as we know it only takes one headline to turn the tides in a hurry.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, Financial Advisor, Fort Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I We have a Plan!

Every European Union country except for one are ready to join the 17 members of the euro zone to put together a new intergovernmental treaty aimed at a more unified fiscal union.  In fact, twenty-six of the twenty-seven European Union leaders agreed to work towards greater integration with harsher budget discipline, except for Britain.  As things stand now, Britain said that they could not accept the proposed EU treaty amendments because they themselves were not able to secure concessions.

This new treaty would not come overnight and could take up to three months to negotiate out the terms between all parties involved.  In addition, some countries may have to hold referendums before their leaders would be able to move forward.

Please remember this is just a rough draft and a very early plan to tackle the European debt crisis.  Invest wisely out there and remember to consult your financial professional with any questions or concerns.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™

Financial Advisor, Fort Myers, Florida

Financial Planners Ft Myers I Market Reacts

The market has decided to react in a negative tone today as the ECB cut interest rates by 0.25% ahead of the all-important European Summit meeting, which begins in Brussels very shortly.  There appears to be a slight shift in overall sentiment as we head into the close today, but again we usually see this sort or reaction right before a meeting of such importance.  Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Keep an eye on the developments out of Germany tonight and tomorrow for an indication of how the markets will respond next week.  We are very close to key resistance levels on the S&P 500 and will have to monitor closely to determine if the bulls or bears will gain the upper hand.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™

Fort Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Waiting in Anticipation

Investment Advisors Fort Myers

On the eve of the all-important Euro Summit in Brussels the world financial markets appear to be waiting in anticipation to see if leaders can stop a run on the Euro currency. This reminds me of the holiday season as a kid when I would always wait and see what gifts would make it under the tree and who would put them there. You always hoped for that great new toy, but most of the time you would just add a new sweater to your pile of gifts.

Financial Planning Ft Myers

(239) 288-6542 ‎

I think as long-term investors we should look at this upcoming Summit meeting as we have all of the other European meetings in the past. Hope for the best, but be prepared for a stalemate. What will be different this time around that causes them to finally put a permanent backstop in place?

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

Investment Advisor Representative

Fort Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I The Importance of the Euro Summit

This Thursday and Friday at the Euro Summit will prove to be extremely important for world leaders in order to take steps that give financial markets confidence. Standard and Poor’s added some additional fuel to the fire by warning on Monday that 15 of 17 euro zone countries could face additional downgrades if they fail to come to a satisfactory agreement in Brussels.

FINANCIAL PLANNERS FORT MYERS

(239) 288-6542

Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has already arrived in Germany today to get a head start on trying to persuade the European leaders to act decisively and quickly to backstop their currency and to ultimately resolve the ongoing debt crisis.

If investors are hoping for a continued Santa Claus rally in the stock market it is essential that there is real progress made at this meeting in Germany, which could be the catalyst that the markets need to continue higher. Please remember past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

Investment Advisor Representative

Fort Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Optimism

The market’s prospects are looking up this morning as French President Nicolos Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are set to meet and discuss further action regarding shoring up confidence in the Euro. This important meet and greet is just a warm up for Friday’s big Euro Summit meeting that aims to have a permanent plan in place to stop the bond vigilantes from aggressively going after the weaker Southern European countries.

A strong stock market today also has the potential for a milestone in the S&P 500. The last time we crossed over the 200 day moving average was back in October. This is significant because many institutions and traders use this level as an indication of continued strength in the markets. Since this level has served as resistance for quite a while now, it will be worth watching to see if we can finally break out of it to the upside.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

Financial Advisor, Fort Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I The Jobs Report

The much anticipated jobs report was released this morning showing a drop in the unemployment rate to 8.6% in November from 9.0% in October. We also saw a creation of 120,000 jobs in November, including 140,000 from the private sector. This number was off a little from the expectations of 125,000, but the market seemed to focus more on the good unemployment figure.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

Financial Planners Fort Myers, Florida

One figure that was a little frustrating was the fact that the number of discouraged workers rose to 129,000, which is higher than in previous months. Overall though, the jobs report has done a pretty good job of weathering all of the various economic shocks and has actually managed to accelerate in the second half of the year.

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Profit Taking

After the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up almost 500 points yesterday, the global markets are pausing a bit today to contemplate all of the coordinated liquidity efforts from Central Banks around the world. All of this liquidity is designed to stop an immediate run on banks by allowing them to be more flexible in how much they borrow and also at what interest rates they have to pay.

From Financial Planners Ft Myers

One of the most important lessons to remember from yesterday is that volatility is here to stay well into the future. Remember, anytime a market can go up by 500 points it most certainly can go down by the same amount. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Stay informed out there!

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

Financial Planners Fort Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Central Banks provide Liquidity

Financial Planners Fort Myers, Florida

The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and central banks from Japan, Switzerland, and Canada have all come together to provide increased liquidity to the entire global financial system. The goal of the central banks is to make it less expensive for banks to get U.S. dollar liquidity when they need to access it. In addition to the U.S. dollar support they are also taking measures to establish swap lines in other currencies as well.

Moves of this magnitude like we are seeing today, suggest that the central banks from around the world are very nervous about the uneasiness in the global financial markets. So far today, the markets are responding very positively to this news. We will have to wait and see just how long the markets will keep a positive tone.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

Financial Planner Fort Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I European Finance Ministers Converge

Financial Planners Fort Myers, Florida

European Finance Ministers from all seventeen countries that use the Euro have descended on Brussels today in order to attempt to stop the run on their currency. The meeting could not have come at a better time because bond yields in Italy continued to move north of seven percent, which remains unsustainable over the long-term.

Among the many topics of the meeting today will be greater integration and uniformity between all seventeen countries. One of the ways to potentially accomplish this is to issue joint Eurobonds, although Germany still denies it has any intention of allowing this action. Sooner or later though, Germany may have to budge on certain issues if they want to continue to use the Euro in its present form into the future.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

Financial Planner

Fort Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Cyber Monday

Financial Advisor Fort Myers, Florida

After one the strongest Black Friday’s in quite some time retailers will again be looking to continue the momentum today with Cyber Monday. Historically, deep discounts have been offered on this day to attract those that prefer to shop online rather than physically at the stores.

The stock market also looks to open very strong after the worst Thanksgiving week since 1932. Today also marks the first time that we have had a combination of good news from both the U.S. and Europe in several weeks. Usually, when you combine a flurry of good news after so many negative reports you tend to have a nice rally. Remember though that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Black Friday

Traditionally the Friday after Thanksgiving has proven to be a positive day for the stock market. However, proving that past performance does not guarantee future results, early on this morning it is looking like our markets are content on ignoring the trends and going about the day at its own pace. With another poor Italian bond auction this morning and the fact that Belgium and Portugal saw their ratings downgraded it is going to prove very difficult to stage a comeback today.

On the positive side of things today, retailers seem to be experiencing strong demand from shoppers across the country looking for those great bargains. Some have even reported that they have sold more merchandise in the first four hours then they did all of Black Friday last year.

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

Financial Advisor Fort Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I German Bund Yields

Financial Planning Ft Myers

Historically speaking the day before Thanksgiving is generally a positive day for the stock market. That pattern appears to be skipping over this year due to all of the extreme volatility that remains present in the global financial markets. One interesting development to take note of today is the fact that the yield on a German 10-Yr Bund is now paying 13 basis points over a 10-Yr Treasury. The last time the yields crossed each other like this was in May of 2009.

I can’t predict the future, but this tells me that the world is demanding a higher rate of return to hold German Bunds, which for the longest time throughout this Eurozone crisis have remained a safe haven.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

Eric Marvin, CFP®, CRPC®

Financial Planner

Fort Myers, Florida

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Revised 3rd Quarter GDP Results

Gross Domestic Product grew at an annual rate of 2% in the third quarter compared to previous expectations of 2.5%. As expected, the market is reacting slightly negative at first glance because of the higher expectations that were built into the number. If you delve a little deeper you can see that there were a few items that are actually quite promising going forward. First, consumer spending is still remarkably strong given the current economic backdrop. Second, business inventories dropped for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2009. These two indicators actually give us hope that fourth quarter GDP may actually have a chance to be revised upwards.

Given the shortened holiday schedule this week, I expect the markets to continue to trade on light volume and also react to major headlines as they unfold.

Eric Marvin

Investment Advisor Representative Fort Myers, FL

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I It’s not Europe this Time!

Over the course of the last several months Monday mornings have proven to be quite stressful for financial markets across the globe. With Southern Europe in a seemingly constant state of turmoil we have become accustomed to waking up on a Monday and reacting to potential good or bad news over the weekend.

This morning is different because instead of being focused on Europe we are focused on the new congressional debt committee right here in the United States. This new “super committee” as some call it was born back in early August when the U.S. narrowly avoided causing a panic with how they handled their debt ceiling. The main objective of this committee is to find a way to reduce $1.2 trillion dollars in debt and do it in a way that spreads the reduction half between defense and non-defense spending with a few exceptions. This Wednesday is the deadline for the final vote, but in order to reach that deadline the debt committee is required to make any plan available 48 hours in advance.

All of this debate and political gridlock once again have caused the markets to become spooked. Remarkably this time the markets are not blaming anything on Europe, but the day is still young.

From Financial Planners Ft Myers

Eric Marvin,

Financial Planner Fort Myers, FL

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I Could the ECB lend money to the IMF?

Ft Myers Financial Planners

It seems like we have gotten to the point where the stability of the global financial markets for the day depends on whether or not the European Central Bank is buying bonds on the open market. When the central bank is buying the bonds the markets tends to look stronger. However, when they are not in there the markets seem to lose all confidence. This short-term buying of debt is clearly not a solution for the long-term, thus the urgent need to develop a credible plan that the markets will respect.

The latest proposed plan on the table has some leaders calling for the European Central Bank to lend money to the International Monetary Fund to streamline a process for countries in trouble to access funds. This of course is on the back end of a plan to leverage the EFSF, or European Financial Stability Fund that can’t seem to gain traction amongst all nations. If successful, this could be the catalyst that the world has been waiting for to stop the crisis from getting any worse.

I know I have been urging everyone to stay more connected to their financial professional, but in times like this it is truly essential. Never be afraid to ask a lot of questions in order to get the right answer.

From Financial Planners Ft Myers

Eric Marvin

Financial Planner in Fort Myers, FL

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I We Didn’t Forget you Rating Agencies!

Yesterday seemed like a fairly typical day on the surface for the global financial markets. Equities sold off in the morning, but then rallied back by afternoon. Then at about 3:00 P.M. or so the rating agency Fitch came out with a statement suggesting the European financial crisis could have a material impact on the banks in the United States. This seems like a forgone conclusion on the surface, but the markets once again reacted to the headline news and immediately sent stocks plummeting. We have to remember that we are living in a time where individuals and institutions sell first and ask questions later.

Ever since Standard & Poors downgraded the United States back in August the rating agencies have taken center stage again just as they did in 2008 and 2009. However, I believe that after completely missing the boat several years ago they do not want to make the same mistakes again. With this in mind, you can expect Fitch, S&P, and Moody’s to be in the news constantly trying to redeem some of their reputations.

These markets today are some of the hardest to navigate, so please try to stay in constant communication with your financial advisor.

Eric Marvin

Financial Planner in Fort Myers, FL

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Financial Planners Ft Myers I “Green Shoots”

With all of the negative news circling around in the media these days I thought this would be a great time to talk about potential “green shoots” that might be either currently present or be on the horizon. The first one quite possibly could be retail sales. I have been pleasantly surprised with the amount of spending that has taken place in the past year. People do tend to save a little more when times get tough, but retail sales have remained a nice surprise among all the European news.

Second, the jobless claims numbers are slowly becoming better and better. Granted, we have a long way to go with the weekly numbers coming in still around 400,000, but this was once a lot higher several months ago.

Third, the CPI numbers, which just came out this morning, are continuing to show that inflation is remaining in check. CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, which generally measures the change in the price level of consumer goods and services bought by households.

So, like today when the markets remain focused on Europe you can look back to these three potential “green shoots” for something positive to think about.

Eric Marvin- Financial Advisor in Fort Myers, FL

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